Winter papers

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82 83 Anderson went on to publish a novel based partly on this story in 1961 titling it Twilight World. 84 Similarly in 1985 it was noted. Parsons that the story torch. Anvil, which also appeared in Astounding Science fiction magazine, but in the April 1957 edition, contains the essence of the "Twilight at noon nuclear winter" hypothesis. In the story a nuclear warhead ignites an oil field, and the soot produced "screens out part of the sun's radiation resulting in Arctic temperatures for much of the population of North America and the soviet Union. 85 1980s edit The 1988 Air Force geophysics Laboratory publication An assessment of global atmospheric effects of a major nuclear war. Contains a chronology and review of the major reports on the nuclear winter hypothesis from 198386. In general these reports arrive at similar conclusions as they are based on "the same assumptions, the same basic data with only minor model-code differences.

However, a more thorough knowledge of the atmosphere is necessary to stream determine their exact nature, extent, and magnitude." report The Effects on the Atmosphere of a major Nuclear Exchange, the committee on the Atmospheric Effects of Nuclear Explosions argues that a "plausible" estimate on the. 74 The potential cooling from soil dust was again looked at in 1992, in a us national Academy of Sciences (NAS) 75 report on geoengineering, which estimated that about 1010kg (100 teragrams) of stratospheric injected soil dust with particulate grain dimensions.1. 76 In 1969, paul Crutzen discovered that oxides of nitrogen (NOx) could be an efficient catalyst for the destruction of the ozone layer/ stratospheric ozone. Following studies on the potential effects of NOx generated by engine heat in stratosphere flying Supersonic Transport (SST) airplanes in the 1970s, long in 1974, john Hampson suggested in the journal Nature that due to the creation of atmospheric NOx by nuclear fireballs, a full-scale nuclear. 77 78 In 1975, hampson's hypothesis "led directly" 79 to the United States National Research council (NRC) reporting on the models of ozone depletion following nuclear war in the book long-Term Worldwide Effects of Multiple nuclear-weapons Detonations. 77 More recent accounts on the specific ozone layer destruction potential of NOx species are much less than earlier assumed from simplistic calculations, as "about.2 million tons" of natural and anthropogenic generated stratospheric NOx is believed to be formed each year according to robert. Parson in the 1990s. 80 Science fiction edit The first published suggestion that a cooling of climate could be an effect of a nuclear war, appears to have been originally put forth by poul Anderson and. Waldrop in their post-war story "Tomorrow's Children in the march 1947 issue of the Astounding Science fiction magazine. The story, primarily about a team of scientists hunting down mutants, 81 warns of a " Fimbulwinter " caused by dust that blocked sunlight after a recent nuclear war and speculated that it may even trigger a new Ice Age.

winter papers

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Approx altitude commercial aircraft operate 1 fat Man 2 castle Bravo in 1952, a few weeks prior to the ivy mike (10.4 Mt) bomb test on Elugelab island, there were concerns that the aerosols lifted by the explosion might cool the earth. Major Norair Lulejian, usaf, and astronomer Natarajan Visvanathan, studied this possibility, reporting their findings in Effects of Superweapons Upon the Climate of the world. According to a document by the defense Threat Reduction Agency this report was the initial study of the "nuclear winter" concept that was popularized by others decades later. It indicated no appreciable chance of explosion-induced climate change. 69 Following numerous surface good bursts of high yield Hydrogen bomb explosions on Pacific Proving Ground islands such as those of ivy mike in 1952 and Castle Bravo (15 Mt) in 1954, The Effects of Nuclear weapons by samuel Glasstone was published in 1957, containing. Further, solar radiation records reveal that none of the nuclear explosions to date has resulted in any detectable change in the direct sunlight recorded on the ground." 70 The us weather Bureau in 1956 regarded it as conceivable that a large enough nuclear war with. rand corporation memorandum The Effects of Nuclear War on the weather and Climate. Batten, while primarily analysing potential dust effects from surface bursts, 72 it notes that "in addition to the effects of the debris, extensive fires ignited by nuclear detonations might change the surface characteristics of the area and modify local weather patterns.

winter papers

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Dubious discuss The soot would absorb enough solar radiation to heat surrounding gases, causing a series of surface chemistry reactions that would break down quantify the stratospheric ozone layer protecting Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation. Nuclear summer edit a "nuclear summer" is a hypothesized scenario in which, after a nuclear winter has abated, a greenhouse effect then occurs due to co2 released by combustion and methane released from the decay of the organic matter that froze during the nuclear winter. 61 62 The risk of this happening is far less scientifically supported than nuclear winter. Citation needed history edit early work edit The mushroom cloud height as a function of explosive yield detonated as surface bursts. 63 64 As charted, yields at least in the megaton range are required to lift dust/ fallout into the stratosphere. Ozone reaches its maximum concentration at about 25 km (c. 82,000 ft) in altitude. 63 Another means world of stratospheric entry is from high altitude nuclear detonations, one example of which includes the.5 kiloton soviet test.88 of 1961, detonated.7. 65 66 us high-yield upper atmospheric tests, teak and Orange were also assessed for their ozone destruction potential.

55 56 Alexsandrov disappeared in 1985. As of 2016, there remains ongoing speculation by friend, Andrew revkin, of foul play relating to his work. 57 Climatic effects edit a study presented at the annual meeting of the American geophysical Union in December 2006 found that even a small-scale, regional nuclear war could disrupt the global climate for a decade or more. In a regional nuclear conflict scenario where two opposing nations in the subtropics would each use 50 Hiroshima -sized nuclear weapons (about 15 kiloton each) on major population centers, the researchers estimated as much as five million tons of soot would be released, which would. The cooling would last for years, and, according to the research, could be "catastrophic". 58 59 ozone depletion edit a 2008 study by michael. Mills., published in the Proceedings of the national Academy of Sciences, found that a nuclear weapons exchange between pakistan and India using their current arsenals could create a near-global ozone hole, triggering human health problems and causing environmental damage for at least. 60 The computer-modeled study looked at a nuclear war between the two countries involving 50 Hiroshima-sized nuclear devices on each side, producing massive urban fires and lofting as much as five million metric tons of soot about 50 miles (80 km) into the mesosphere.

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winter papers

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39 Whether by coagulation or the phoretic effect, once the aerosol of smoke particles are at this lower atmospheric level, cloud seeding can begin, permitting precipitation to wash the smoke aerosol out of the atmosphere by the wet deposition mechanism. The chemical processes that affect the removal are dependent on the ability of atmospheric chemistry to oxidize the carbonaceous component of the smoke, via reactions with essay oxidative species such as write ozone and nitrogen oxides, both of which are found at all levels of the atmosphere. Historical data on residence times of aerosols, albeit a different mixture of aerosols, in this case stratospheric sulfur aerosols and volcanic ash from megavolcano eruptions, appear to be in the one-to-two-year time scale, 47 however aerosolatmosphere interactions are still poorly understood. 48 49 soot properties edit see also: Tihomir novakov and Aethalometer sooty aerosols can have a wide range of properties, as well as complex shapes, making it difficult to determine their evolving atmospheric Optical depth value. The conditions present during the creation of the soot are believed to be considerably important as to their final properties, with soot generated on the more efficient spectrum of burning efficiency considered almost "elemental carbon black while on the more inefficient end of the burning. These partially burnt "organics" as they are known, often form tar balls and brown carbon during common lower-intensity wildfires, and can also coat the purer black carbon particles.

However, as the soot of greatest importance is that which is injected to the highest altitudes by the pyroconvection of the firestorm a fire being fed with storm-force winds of air it is estimated that the majority of the soot under these conditions is the. 53 Consequences edit diagram obtained by the cia from the International Seminar on Nuclear War in Italy 1984. It depicts the findings of soviet 3-D computer model research on nuclear winter from 1983, and although containing similar errors as earlier Western models, it was the first 3-D model of nuclear winter. (The three dimensions in the model are longitude, latitude and altitude.) 54 The diagram shows the models predictions of global temperature changes after a global nuclear exchange. The top image shows effects after 40 days, the bottom after 243 days. A co-author was nuclear winter modelling pioneer Vladimir Alexandrov.

The modeled stable inversion layer of hot soot between the troposphere and high stratosphere that produces the anti-greenhouse effect was dubbed the "Smokeosphere" by Stephen Schneider. In their 1988 paper. Although it is common in the climate models to consider city firestorms, these need not be ignited by nuclear devices; 15 more conventional ignition sources can instead be the spark of the firestorms. Prior to the previously mentioned solar heating effect, the soot's injection height is controlled by the rate of energy release from the firestorm's fuel, not the size of an initial nuclear explosion. 30 For example, the mushroom cloud from the bomb dropped on Hiroshima reached a height of six kilometers (middle troposphere) within a few minutes and then dissipated due to winds, while the individual fires within the city took almost three hours to form into.


35 As the incendiary effects of a nuclear explosion do not present any especially characteristic features, 36 it is estimated by those with Strategic bombing experience that as the city was a firestorm hazard, the same fire ferocity and building damage produced at Hiroshima. While the firestorms of Dresden and Hiroshima and the mass fires of tokyo and Nagasaki occurred within mere months in 1945, the more intense and conventionally lit Hamburg firestorm occurred in 1943. Despite the separation in time, ferocity and area burned, leading modelers of the hypothesis state that these five fires potentially placed five percent as much smoke into the stratosphere as the hypothetical 100 nuclear-ignited fires discussed in modern models. 16 While it is believed that the modeled climate-cooling-effects from the mass of soot injected into the stratosphere by 100 firestorms (one to five teragrams) would have been detectable with technical instruments in wwii, five percent of that would not have been possible to observe. 16 Aerosol removal timescale edit Smoke rising in Lochcarron, scotland, is stopped by an overlying natural low-level inversion layer of warmer air (2006). The exact timescale for how long this smoke remains, and thus how severely this smoke affects the climate once it reaches the stratosphere, is dependent on both chemical and physical removal processes. 39 The most important physical removal mechanism is " rainout both during the "fire-driven convective column" phase, which produces " black rain " near the fire site, and rainout after the convective plume's dispersal, where the smoke is no longer concentrated and thus "wet removal". 40 However, these efficient removal mechanisms in the troposphere are avoided in the robock 2007 study, where solar heating is modeled to quickly loft the soot into the stratosphere, "detraining" or separating the darker soot particles from the fire clouds' whiter water condensation. 41 Once in the stratosphere, the physical removal mechanisms affecting the timescale of the soot particles' residence are how quickly the aerosol of soot collides and coagulates with other particles via brownian motion, and falls out of the atmosphere via gravity-driven dry deposition, 44 and.

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26 Mechanism edit main article: Pyrocumulonimbus cloud Picture of a pyrocumulonimbus cloud taken from a commercial airliner cruising at about. In 2002 various sensing instruments detected 17 distinct pyrocumulonimbus cloud events in North America alone. 21 The nuclear winter scenario assumes that 100 or more city firestorms 29 30 are ignited by twist nuclear explosions, 31 and that the firestorms lifts large amounts of sooty smoke into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere by the movement offered by the pyrocumulonimbus clouds. At 1015 kilometres (69 miles) above the earth's surface, the absorption of sunlight could further heat the soot in the smoke, lifting some or all of it into the stratosphere, where the smoke could persist for years if there is no rain to wash. This aerosol of particles could heat the stratosphere and prevent a portion of the sun's light from reaching the surface, causing surface temperatures to drop drastically. In this scenario it is predicted by whom? that surface air temperatures would be the same as, or colder than, a given region's winter for months to years on end.

winter papers

During this period, summer drops in average temperature could be up to 20 C (36 F) in core agricultural regions of the lear us, europe, and China, and as much as 35 C (63 F) in Russia. 18 This cooling would be produced due to a 99 reduction in the natural solar radiation reaching the surface of the planet in the first few years, gradually clearing over the course of several decades. On the fundamental level, since the advent of photographic evidence of tall clouds were captured, 20 it was known that firestorms could inject soot smoke/ aerosols into the stratosphere but the longevity of this slew of aerosols was a major unknown. Independent of the team that continue to publish theoretical models on nuclear winter, in 2006, mike fromm of the naval Research Laboratory, experimentally found that each natural occurrence of a massive wildfire firestorm, much larger than that observed at Hiroshima, can produce minor "nuclear winter". This is somewhat analogous to the frequent volcanic eruptions that inject sulfates into the stratosphere and thereby produce minor, even negligible, volcanic winter effects. A suite of satellite and aircraft-based firestorm-soot-monitoring instruments are at the forefront of attempts to accurately determine the lifespan, quantity, injection height, and optical properties of this smoke. Information regarding all of these properties is necessary to truly ascertain the length and severity of the cooling effect of firestorms, independent of the nuclear winter computer model projections. Presently, from satellite tracking data, stratospheric smoke aerosols dissipate in a time span under approximately two months. 26 The existence of any hint of a tipping point into a new stratospheric condition where the aerosols would not be removed within this time frame remains to be determined.

years. Robock has not modeled this, but has speculated that it would have global agricultural losses as a consequence. 14 As nuclear devices need not be detonated to ignite a firestorm, the term "nuclear winter" is something of a misnomer. 15 The majority of papers published on the subject state that without qualitative justification, nuclear explosions are the cause of the modeled firestorm effects. The only phenomenon that is modeled by computer in the nuclear winter papers is the climate forcing agent of firestorm-soot, a product which can be ignited and formed by a myriad of means. 15 Although rarely discussed, the proponents of the hypothesis state that the same "nuclear winter" effect would occur if 100 conventional firestorms were ignited. 16 A much larger number of firestorms, in the thousands, not in citation given was the initial assumption of the computer modelers who coined the term in the 1980s. These were speculated to be a possible result of any large scale employment of counter-value airbursting nuclear weapon use during an American-soviet total war. This larger number of firestorms, which are not in themselves modeled, 17 are presented as causing nuclear winter conditions as a result of the smoke inputted into various climate models, with the depths of severe cooling lasting for as long as a decade.

8 9 In these model scenarios, various soot clouds containing uncertain quantities of soot were assumed to form over cities, oil refineries, and more rural missile silos. Once the quantity of soot is decided upon by the researchers, writing the climate effects of these soot clouds are then modeled. 10 The term "nuclear winter" was a neologism coined in 1983 by richard. Turco in reference to a 1-dimensional computer model created to examine the "nuclear twilight" idea, this 1-D model output the finding that massive quantities of soot and smoke would remain aloft in the air for on the order of years, causing a severe planet-wide drop. Turco would later distance himself from these extreme 1-D conclusions. 11 After the failure of the predictions on the effects of the 1991 Kuwait oil fires, that were made by the primary team of climatologists that advocate the hypothesis, over a decade passed without any new published papers on the topic. More recently, the same team of prominent modellers from the 1980s have begun again to publish the outputs of computer models, these newer models produce the same general findings as their old ones, that the ignition of 100 firestorms, each comparable in intensity to that. 12 13 These firestorms would result in the injection of soot (specifically black carbon ) into the earth's stratosphere, producing an anti-greenhouse effect that would lower the earth's surface temperature.

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For other uses, see, nuclear winter (disambiguation). Nuclear winter is the severe and prolonged global climatic cooling effect hypothesized 1 2 to occur after widespread firestorms following a nuclear war. 3, the hypothesis is based on the fact that such fires can inject soot into the stratosphere, where it can block some direct sunlight from reaching the surface of the earth. It is speculated that the resulting cooling would lead to widespread crop failure and famine. 4, in developing computer models of nuclear-winter scenarios, researchers use the conventional bombing. Hamburg, and the, hiroshima firestorm in, world War ii as example cases where soot might have been injected into the stratosphere, 5 alongside modern observations of natural, large-area wildfire -firestorms. 3 6 7, contents. General edit "Nuclear winter or as it was mba initially termed, "nuclear twilight began to be considered as a scientific concept in the 1980s, after it became clear that an earlier hypothesis, that fireball generated NOx emissions would devastate the ozone layer, was losing credibility. It was within this context that the climatic effects of soot from fires was "chanced upon" and soon became the new focus of the climatic effects of nuclear war.


winter papers
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